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Applying the theory to the real estate industry
What is the relevance of this to the real estate investment management industry?
What if press-pulse theory is as applicable to real estate fund managers as it was to ammonites?
For the real estate funds industry in the United States and the United Kingdom, at the time of this original paper in 2010 a period of pressure had continued largely uninterrupted to date since the liquidity crisis in the summer of 2007. This pressure became global in the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the bail-out of AIG over the weekend of 13th and 14th September 2008.
The central message of the original paper was that the pressure from the weak economic situation and the aftermath of the financial crisis would last until at least 2013, and that a raft of regulatory changes all scheduled tocome into effect on the same day, 1st January 2013, might provide the pulse that pushed real estate investment managers into extinction.
The reguatory and other changes that we identified did not come into effect as originally scheduled, coming into effect at different points from 2013 to 2019. Intense lobbying also ensured that some of the more problematic elements had been significantly amended by the time the rules were introduced. The lobbying continues to this day and we are extremely proud to have been involved in many of the real estate industry responses through the Association of Real Estate Funds (AREF), the Investment Property Forum (IPF), other trade bodies and where appropriate through direct responses of our own.
Although the "pulse" was avoided, the industry remains under long term state of "press".